Airbus has reduced its 20-year global aircraft demand forecast for the first time since the aviation industry’s post-pandemic recovery, citing higher fuel costs, geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and slower airline capacity expansion. The European aircraft manufacturer now expects 42,060 passenger aircraft deliveries worldwide between 2026 and 2045, representing a 1% decline from its previous outlook and signaling a more cautious long-term growth trajectory despite continued demand momentum in Asia.
The revised forecast reflects a more challenging operating environment for airlines, which are facing higher input costs, weaker traffic growth in some markets, and increased pressure to improve profitability. Rising fuel prices linked to the conflict involving Iran and temporary disruptions affecting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have encouraged carriers to reassess fleet expansion strategies and prioritize efficiency improvements, aircraft replacement cycles, and financial discipline.
According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast, the aviation sector will require 42,060 new passenger aircraft over the next two decades, including 33,920 single-aisle aircraft — such as the A320neo family and Boeing’s 737 MAX — and 8,140 widebody aircraft. Both segments represent a 1% reduction compared with Airbus’ previous 20-year projection.
Antonio Da Costa, Airbus Head of Market Analysis, said the industry’s recovery has lost momentum following several consecutive economic and geopolitical disruptions. “That post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened,” Da Costa said.
He added that higher oil prices associated with geopolitical instability have reduced airlines’ appetite for aggressive capacity growth, forcing carriers to adopt more conservative expansion strategies.
Despite the downward revision in aircraft deliveries, Airbus maintains a positive long-term outlook for global air travel. The company expects passenger traffic to grow 3.9% annually through 2045. While this exceeds the 3.6% growth rate published in its previous report, Airbus explained that the increase reflects a methodological adjustment. Under comparable assumptions, the forecast represents a slowdown from the previous 4.1% annual growth estimate.
Asia will continue driving global aircraft demand, accounting for approximately half of all commercial aircraft deliveries during the forecast period. India remains the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, prompting Airbus to raise its domestic passenger traffic growth projection to 9.1% annually from 8.9% previously.
China, however, faces a more moderate outlook. Airbus lowered its forecast for domestic passenger traffic growth to 4.7% annually from 5.4%, citing slower economic expansion and softer demand expectations.
A key structural change in Airbus’ forecast is the growing importance of fleet replacement rather than capacity expansion. The manufacturer expects replacement aircraft to represent 47% of total passenger aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045, compared with 45% in its previous projection.
This shift reflects airlines’ increasing focus on fuel efficiency, emissions reduction targets, and operating cost optimization. Airbus noted that carriers are extending aircraft lifespans and increasing seat density, allowing them to accommodate passenger growth without proportional increases in fleet size.
Da Costa also highlighted the potential role of artificial intelligence in improving airline productivity, noting that technological advances could increase operational efficiency and moderate future aircraft demand requirements.
However, supply chain constraints remain a significant challenge. Airbus continues targeting 870 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2026, despite ongoing manufacturing bottlenecks across the aerospace sector. Through May, the company had delivered 262 aircraft, equivalent to approximately 30% of its annual target.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently reduced its 2026 airline industry profit forecast to US$23 billion from US$45 billion, citing rising expenses, particularly fuel costs. The association expects global airline revenues to increase 9.5% to US$1.17 trillion, while operating expenses are projected to rise 13.1%, putting additional pressure on industry profitability and reducing expected margins.
