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Big videogames are sometimes called “forever franchises.” That certainly describes the wait for some of them.

Big videogames are sometimes called “forever franchises.” That certainly describes the wait for some of them.

Gamers have been eagerly awaiting a “Grand Theft Auto” sequel since the last one came out more than 10 years ago. Investors have been even more eager since publisher Take-Two Interactive gave a long-term forecast two years ago that strongly suggested the game could launch in the fiscal year that just ended in March.

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Gamers have been eagerly awaiting a “Grand Theft Auto” sequel since the last one came out more than 10 years ago. Investors have been even more eager since publisher Take-Two Interactive gave a long-term forecast two years ago that strongly suggested the game could launch in the fiscal year that just ended in March.

That obviously didn’t happen. Likewise, a launch in fiscal 2025 that was indicated by the company’s updated outlook last year won’t be happening either. Take-Two on Thursday officially projected net bookings of about $5.6 billion for the current fiscal year, up 5% from the just-ended year but well below the “over $8 billion” the company originally said it would hit. As part of the forecast, Take-Two said “Grand Theft Auto VI” will launch in the fall of 2025, which falls in its 2026 fiscal year.

It is the most specific release window the company has given for the game to date. And it wasn’t a complete surprise—a growing number of analysts were skeptical of a fiscal 2025 launch. Wall Street’s consensus net bookings projection for the year has slid about 13% over the past six months, according to data from FactSet. Still, Take-Two’s forecast was well below the last published consensus estimate of $6.98 billion for the year.

The shift won’t hurt the eventual payoff of what is likely to be the biggest videogame launch in history. The “Grand Theft Auto” franchise has remained a lucrative one, despite the long gaps between sequels.

Take-Two said in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call Thursday that “Grand Theft Auto” online—the franchise’s online multiplayer game—grew its audience by 23% during the most recent fiscal year. Even more notably, the company disclosed that “Grand Theft Auto V” surpassed life-to-date sales of 200 million units, which reflects 20 million units sold in the latest fiscal year. That would be considered a blockbuster-level launch for a new game, let alone one in its 10th year of life.

In other words, “Grand Theft Auto VI” is the closest thing to a surefire hit in the ever volatile videogame industry. The challenge for Take-Two now will be keeping the game on schedule as it keeps building up its other console and mobile game properties.

The company said Thursday that it expects to grow its net bookings sequentially in the 2027 fiscal year, which means continued growth following a record launch year for a company that will rival Electronic Arts as the largest stand-alone videogame publisher following Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Such continued growth will likely need to come from more than just “Grand Theft Auto VI.” In a note to clients Friday, analyst James Heaney of Jefferies said Take-Two’s fiscal 2027 “also needs incremental titles such as Borderlands or Bioshock, or both.” In his own report, Clay Griffin of MoffettNathanson said: “For us, it seems like for Take-Two to outperform expectations, it’ll need to come from the periphery.”

It helps that the company’s mobile game business has finally crept back to growth, helped by the strong performance of Zynga’s “Match Factory.” Take-Two also has a new shooter game called “Judas” from the creator of its “Bioshock” franchise that is expected to launch in the current fiscal year.

But new games are wildly unpredictable, even from high-profile developers.

“It was never easy to bring new IP or even reimagine successful AAA games,” Griffin wrote. “It’s gotten harder.”

Take-Two’s share price rose more than 2% Friday morning despite an after-hours drop following Thursday’s report, with Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet speculating that the latest delay of “Grand Theft Auto VI” might actually serve as a “clearing event for the stock,” which has languished this year on uncertainty about the game’s launch timing.

Take-Two’s biggest game remains firmly in the driver’s seat.

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