A preliminary report by Italian prosecutors investigating the sinking of Bayesian appears to indicate stormy weather was not the cause. Instead, it finds, the Bayesian crew is responsible.
The public prosecutor’s office in Termini Imerese, Italy has been looking into the sinking since it occurred in August 2024. British media outlet Sky News quotes an unidentified source connected to the findings. The source says the weather that night was “little more than a squall, a sudden increase in wind speed that precedes thunderstorms and downpours.” Furthermore, the findings reportedly say, the crew acting improperly, underestimating the weather, and failing to activate safety devices correctly all led to the sinking.
We contacted the public prosecutor’s office to request a copy of the report. We didn’t receive a response by press time.
The quoted statement and findings contradict the interim report on the sinking by the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB). Released in May 2025, it says that sudden, violent winds upwards of 70 knots forced the yacht beyond a recoverable heeling angle. Furthermore, the MAIB indicates that the yacht’s stability booklet contained limited information about her vulnerability in storms. Nothing in the booklet pertained to sudden squalls or gusts with her keel up, whether at anchor or under engine power. The MAIB’s report preceded the salvage of Bayesian, which occurred the following month. Its final report is still pending, with no set date for release.
Notably, the Italian prosecutor’s preliminary findings contradict statements by Giovanni Costantino, chairman of The Italian Sea Group. The Italian Sea Group owns Perini Navi, which built Bayesian. In multiple media interviews, he has insisted that sailing vessels are “unsinkable.” Additionally, he alleges that the crew failed to heed weather warnings and lower the keel. He further blames the Bayesian crew for leaving hatches or doors open, allowing water ingress. In January of this year, The Italian Sea Group sued the captain, two crewmembers, and the holding company of Bayesian. It’s seeking €456 million (about $537 million at press time) for reputational harm and loss of sales.
On August 18, 2024, the 184-foot (56-meter) sailing superyacht was anchored about 984 feet (300 meters) from shore in Porticello, Sicily. The owners, Mike Lynch and his wife Angela Bacares, were aboard with their daughter Hannah plus several business associates and friends. So, too, were the captain and nine crewmembers. Around 4 a.m. on August 19, security cameras on land captured a sudden, dramatic storm and the yacht’s mast lights going dark. By 4:30 a.m., Bayesian sank in about 164 feet (50 meters) of water. Although 15 people escaped, seven died. They were Lynch, his daughter, Lynch’s four friends and colleagues, and Recaldo Thomas, Bayesian’s chef.
Italian prosecutors may still consider pressing charges against the captain and two of the crew. Negligent shipwreck and manslaughter are among the potential charges.
