Assessing Mercedes-Benz Group (XTRA:MBG) Valuation After Q1 2026 Sales Decline

Q1 2026 sales update and why it matters for Mercedes-Benz Group stock

Mercedes-Benz Group (XTRA:MBG) has drawn fresh attention after reporting first quarter 2026 group sales of 499,700 cars and vans, a 6% decline compared with the same period a year earlier.

For investors, this sales step down raises questions about how demand, pricing and model mix might be feeding into revenue and profitability, and whether the recent share price performance already reflects this softer start to the year.

See our latest analysis for Mercedes-Benz Group.

The Q1 sales decline arrived after a softer run in the share price, with a 90 day share price return of 9.3% and a year to date share price return of 13.85%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 23.49% and 5 year total shareholder return of 26.36% show that, over longer periods, investors who held on and reinvested income have seen a different picture to the recent price pressure around the current €53.35 level.

If this update has you reassessing the auto space, it can help to scan other areas of the market where capital and technology are reshaping demand, such as 34 robotics and automation stocks

With Q1 sales down 6% and the share price easing over the past 90 days, the key question is whether Mercedes-Benz Group at about €53 is now cheap or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 46.2% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at about €53, the most followed narrative puts Mercedes-Benz Group’s fair value closer to €99, pointing to a large valuation gap according to Arizon.

Mercedes is a very healthy company, has built a good brand and dominates in most parts of Europe. The more recent years decline in earnings can be attributed to pressure to switch to electric cars, as well as increase in competition and economic downturn of recent years. Things to consider are that Mercedes Benz is actually a leader in EVs and has well established technology even before Tesla did. They have made massive investments in the past which will reap benefits. As for the competition, it is pretty safe to assume that EU will increase tariffs on China so Mercedes can keep its sales high. Above all, company pays a good dividend, and it is currently undervalued even if we estimate slight decrease in earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what supports a nearly double fair value for Mercedes-Benz Group? This narrative leans on earnings power, margin resilience and a future profit multiple more often seen in higher growth sectors.

Result: Fair Value of €99.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on EV execution and policy support. Tougher competition or weaker tariffs could potentially squeeze margins and challenge the current undervaluation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Mercedes-Benz Group narrative.

Next Steps

With mixed signals across sales, valuation narratives and future expectations, the real question is how you interpret the balance of risk and reward for yourself, so move quickly and review the full picture around Mercedes-Benz Group by checking the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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